Bitcoin is near its 4-year average. Historically, median 1-year forward return of +72-124%, with 93-100% of periods positive.
This is NOT the Mayer Multiple (which uses the 200-day moving average). The 4-year MA aligns with Bitcoin's halving cycle (~1460 days), making it a structural indicator rather than a short-term trading tool.
Bitcoin's block reward halves roughly every 4 years (210,000 blocks). This halving cycle has historically driven supply shocks and price cycles. The 4-year moving average smooths out these cycles to show Bitcoin's long-term trend.
Each day, we average the closing price over the previous 1460 days. The ratio compares today's price to that average. When the price is far above the average, Bitcoin may be overextended. When it's below, it may be undervalued relative to its long-term trajectory.
Daily BTC prices sourced from CoinGecko, covering 2013 to present. The moving average is computed from 4,500+ daily closing prices.