10,000 Monte Carlo simulations over 10 years | Updated: 2026-02-09
Percentile ranges at key horizons (log scale)
Median projected price at each horizon
| Horizon | Conservative | Moderate | Aggressive |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3M | $70K$55K–$91K | $75K$59K–$98K | $79K$62K–$102K |
| 1Y | $75K$45K–$123K | $97K$58K–$158K | $117K$71K–$190K |
| 3Y | $86K$35K–$205K | $169K$71K–$389K | $285K$122K–$650K |
| 5Y | $98K$33K–$311K | $264K$94K–$764K | $593K$215K–$1.7M |
| 10Y | $138K$28K–$681K | $576K$146K–$2.3M | $2.2M$592K–$8.2M |
Starts at 35% annual drift, decaying to ~12% at 10 years. Reflects Bitcoin gradually maturing while retaining above-average growth.
These projections use Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) with exponentially declining drift to model Bitcoin's price over a 10-year horizon. Unlike constant-drift models, declining drift accounts for Bitcoin's expected maturation as an asset class.
Bitcoin's historical returns have been extraordinary — but they can't compound forever at early-adoption rates. As the market cap grows, it takes exponentially more capital to sustain the same percentage returns. Declining drift models this naturally: high growth early, gradually converging toward long-run equilibrium.
Conservative assumes Bitcoin grows at equity-like rates (7%) with no decay — a baseline if adoption stalls. Moderate starts at 35% and decays to ~12% at 10 years — reflecting gradual maturation. Aggressive starts at 55% and decays to ~20% — assuming sustained institutional adoption and protocol development.
Each scenario runs 10,000 independent GBM paths using identical random seeds (same randomness, different assumptions). The fan chart shows the 5th through 95th percentile price bands at each month. Volatility also declines exponentially in the moderate and aggressive scenarios, reflecting Bitcoin's observed volatility compression over time.
5th-95th percentile over 10 years · Moderate